Rays at Rockies
TB13–
COL9Last play · TJ Rumfield flies out to left fielder Chandler Simpson.
Win probability
Rockies0%
TB 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 8 – 2 COL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
10.5
opened 11 ↓
fair over 51.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-165 / +154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (31) on a fly ball to right center field. Jonathan Aranda scores. (inning 1) — -21% Rays
9Mickey Moniak out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Cole Carrigg scores.13–9
9Hunter Goodman out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Kyle Karros scores. Cole Carrigg to 3rd.13–8
9Cole Carrigg doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Jake McCarthy scores. Kyle Karros to 3rd.13–7
9Jake McCarthy doubles (23) on a line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Ezequiel Tovar scores.13–6
9Richie Palacios homers (5) on a fly ball to right field. Cedric Mullins scores.13–5
8Mickey Moniak homers (18) on a fly ball to right center field.11–5
8Jonathan Aranda doubles (19) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Taylor Walls scores.11–4
7Kyle Karros singles on a ground ball to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Ezequiel Tovar scores.10–4
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.