Royals at Rockies
Last play · Tyler Tolbert flies out to right fielder Troy Johnston.
Win probability
Rockies100%
KC 0%COL 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 2 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 12.5 ↓
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+106 / -127
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Brett Sullivan doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Willi Castro scores. Troy Johnston scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd. (inning 6) — +17% Rockies
6TJ Rumfield doubles (23) on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Cole Carrigg scores.1–8
6Jake McCarthy homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Edouard Julien scores. Brett Sullivan scores.1–7
6Brett Sullivan doubles (10) on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Willi Castro scores. Troy Johnston scores. Edouard Julien to 3rd.1–4
4Ezequiel Tovar out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Starling Marte. Edouard Julien scores. Brett Sullivan to 3rd.1–2
2Luke Maile singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cole Carrigg. John Rave scores. Josh Rojas to 2nd.1–1
1Cole Carrigg doubles (10) on a line drive to left fielder Starling Marte. Mickey Moniak scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
