Rays at Rockies
Last play · Edouard Julien challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Edouard Julien called out on strikes.
Win probability
Rockies0%
TB 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 3 – 0 COL
Rays led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Junior Caminero homers (33) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 3) — -14% Rays
7Victor Mesa Jr. out on a sacrifice bunt to first baseman TJ Rumfield. Taylor Walls scores.4–0
3Junior Caminero homers (33) on a fly ball to left field.3–0
1Chandler Simpson singles on a line drive to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Jonathan Aranda scores. Junior Caminero to 2nd.2–0
1Jonathan Aranda singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy. Victor Mesa Jr. scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
