Rays at Rockies
Last play · Troy Johnston strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
TB 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 5 – 7 COL
Rockies led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11.5 ↓
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-147 / +138
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jordan Beck. Taylor Walls scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd. (inning 9) — -44% Rays
11Junior Caminero singles on a ground ball to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Yandy Díaz scores.9–7
11Yandy Díaz doubles (20) on a sharp fly ball to right fielder Tyler Freeman.8–7
9Jonathan Aranda singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jordan Beck. Taylor Walls scores. Yandy Díaz scores. Jonathan Aranda to 2nd.7–7
4Willi Castro homers (13) on a fly ball to right field. Kyle Karros scores.5–7
3Mickey Moniak homers (19) on a fly ball to right field. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Jake McCarthy scores.5–5
3Ezequiel Tovar singles on a line drive to center fielder Cedric Mullins. Jordan Beck scores.5–2
3Liam Hicks hits a grand slam (15) to right field. Richie Palacios scores. Taylor Walls scores. Jonathan Aranda scores.5–1
3Jonathan Aranda walks. Cedric Mullins scores. Richie Palacios to 3rd. Taylor Walls to 2nd.1–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
