Dodgers at Rockies
Last play · TJ Rumfield flies out to shortstop Mookie Betts.
Win probability
Rockies0%
LAD 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalLAD 6 – 4 COL
Dodgers led after 5
Total runs
11.5
opened 11.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-193 / +179
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Dodgers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Shohei Ohtani homers (30) on a fly ball to right center field. Hunter Feduccia scores. (inning 3) — -26% Dodgers
9Willi Castro singles on a ground ball to left fielder Enrique Hernández. Jake McCarthy scores.7–6
8Zac Veen singles on a line drive to right fielder Kyle Tucker. Willi Castro scores. TJ Rumfield to 2nd.7–5
6Freddie Freeman singles on a line drive to left fielder Mickey Moniak. Teoscar Hernández scores. Shohei Ohtani to 2nd.7–4
5Willi Castro homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field.6–4
4Freddie Freeman out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Cole Carrigg. Teoscar Hernández scores.6–3
4Teoscar Hernández doubles (14) on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Beck. Kyle Tucker scores.5–3
4Kyle Tucker doubles (19) on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Beck. Tommy Edman scores.4–3
3Connor Norby doubles (14) on a ground ball to center fielder Andy Pages. TJ Rumfield scores.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
