Guardians at Rockies
Last play · Brett Sullivan strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
CLE 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 3 – 2 COL
Guardians led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-158 / +147
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jo Adell homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Chase DeLauter scores. José Ramírez scores. (inning 4) — -34% Guardians
9Connor Norby homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.4–3
6Patrick Bailey singles on a line drive to left fielder Zac Veen. Jo Adell scores. Nathaniel Lowe to 2nd.4–2
5Mickey Moniak homers (21) on a fly ball to right center field.3–2
4Troy Johnston doubles (26) on a line drive to left fielder Steven Kwan. Willi Castro scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd.3–1
4Jo Adell homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Chase DeLauter scores. José Ramírez scores.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
