Cardinals at Rockies
Last play · Cole Carrigg strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Rockies0%
STL 100%COL 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 1 COL
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
11
opened 11
fair over 47.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-130 / +108
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Rockies favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Iván Herrera homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Thomas Saggese scores. José Fermín scores. (inning 9) — -78% Cardinals
9Iván Herrera homers (15) on a fly ball to center field. Thomas Saggese scores. José Fermín scores.7–6
7TJ Rumfield homers (15) on a fly ball to right center field.4–6
6Zac Veen hits a sacrifice bunt. Troy Johnston scores. Adael Amador to 2nd. Zac Veen to 1st.4–5
6Adael Amador singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Connor Norby scores. Troy Johnston to 3rd.4–4
6Cole Carrigg hits an inside-the-park home run (7) on a fly ball to right-center field.4–3
5Jordan Walker flies into a sacrifice double play, center fielder Jake McCarthy to first baseman TJ Rumfield to third baseman Connor Norby to second baseman Adael Amador. Bryan Torres scores. Iván Herrera out at 2nd.4–1
5Alec Burleson singles on a ground ball to shortstop Cole Carrigg. Nathan Church scores. Bryan Torres to 3rd. Iván Herrera to 2nd.3–1
2Thomas Saggese doubles (3) on a ground ball to center fielder Jake McCarthy, deflected by pitcher Ryan Feltner. Joshua Báez scores. Nolan Gorman to 3rd.2–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
