Marlins at Tigers
Last play · Xavier Edwards flies out to left fielder Riley Greene.
Win probability
Tigers100%
MIA 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIA 0 – 4 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
6
opened 6.5 ↓
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Tigers favored ↑50%Marlins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene scores. (inning 1) — +24% Tigers
9Otto Lopez homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field.2–8
8Colt Keith strikes out swinging, catcher Agustín Ramírez to first baseman Connor Norby.1–8
7Otto Lopez out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Jakob Marsee scores.1–7
6Javier Báez singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Jakob Marsee. Spencer Torkelson scores. Zach McKinstry to 3rd. Javier Báez to 2nd.0–7
6Kerry Carpenter homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Riley Greene scores.0–6
5Kevin McGonigle homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field.0–4
1Dillon Dingler homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
