Royals at Tigers
Last play · Starling Marte flies out to center fielder Javier Báez.
Win probability
Tigers100%
KC 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 0 DET
Royals led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+107 / -128
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle walks. (inning 8) — +32% Tigers
8Dillon Dingler doubles (2) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Lane Thomas. Kevin McGonigle scores.1–2
8Kevin McGonigle walks.1–1
2Carter Jensen grounds into a force out, first baseman Spencer Torkelson to shortstop Javier Báez. Vinnie Pasquantino scores. Starling Marte to 3rd. Jonathan India out at 2nd. Carter Jensen to 1st.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
