Royals at Tigers
KC9–
DET10Last play · Colt Keith singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Riley Greene scores.
Win probability
Tigers100%
KC 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 6 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Salvador Perez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores. (inning 7) — -53% Royals
9Colt Keith singles on a sharp line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Riley Greene scores.9–10
9Riley Greene doubles (6) on a ground ball to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Gleyber Torres scores. Kevin McGonigle scores.9–9
9Vinnie Pasquantino homers (1) on a line drive to right field.9–7
7Kerry Carpenter out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Lane Thomas in foul territory. Kevin McGonigle scores.8–7
7Salvador Perez homers (3) on a fly ball to left field. Maikel Garcia scores. Bobby Witt Jr. scores.8–6
7Bobby Witt Jr. singles on a ground ball to second baseman Gleyber Torres. Lane Thomas scores. Maikel Garcia to 2nd.5–6
7Maikel Garcia singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Jac Caglianone scores. Lane Thomas to 3rd.4–6
7Jac Caglianone singles on a ground ball to center fielder Matt Vierling. Jonathan India scores.3–6
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.