Brewers at Tigers
Last play · Spencer Torkelson homers (2) on a line drive to left center field.
Win probability
Tigers100%
MIL 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIL 1 – 2 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+189 / -233
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Brewers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Blake Perkins doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Gary Sánchez scores. Luis Matos scores. (inning 7) — -36% Brewers
9Spencer Torkelson homers (2) on a line drive to left center field.4–5
8Jahmai Jones homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.4–4
7David Hamilton singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Blake Perkins scores. Joey Ortiz to 2nd.4–3
7Blake Perkins doubles (3) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Gary Sánchez scores. Luis Matos scores.3–3
6Dillon Dingler grounds into a force out, second baseman Brice Turang to shortstop Joey Ortiz. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene out at 2nd. Dillon Dingler to 1st.1–3
4Gary Sánchez doubles (2) on a line drive to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. William Contreras scores.1–2
1Riley Greene homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
