Rangers at Tigers
TEX1–
DET7Last play · Kyle Higashioka grounds out, second baseman Hao-Yu Lee to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Tigers100%
TEX 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 0 – 2 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Torkelson homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Riley Greene scores. (inning 5) — +25% Tigers
7Matt Vierling doubles (7) on a fly ball to right fielder Andrew McCutchen. Jake Rogers scores. Kevin McGonigle scores.1–7
7Kevin McGonigle singles on a ground ball to right fielder Andrew McCutchen. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Jake Rogers to 3rd. Kevin McGonigle to 2nd.1–5
7Hao-Yu Lee singles on a ground ball to right fielder Andrew McCutchen, deflected by second baseman Josh Smith. Kerry Carpenter scores.1–4
7Kyle Higashioka grounds out softly to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Ezequiel Duran scores. Josh Smith to 3rd.1–3
6Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to right fielder Andrew McCutchen. Jake Rogers scores.0–3
5Spencer Torkelson homers (6) on a fly ball to left center field. Riley Greene scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.