Rangers at Tigers
Last play · Josh Smith pops out to third baseman Colt Keith.
Win probability
Tigers100%
TEX 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTEX 1 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8.5 ↓
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Rangers favored ↓
Biggest swing · Dillon Dingler homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene scores. (inning 1) — +24% Tigers
4Jake Burger homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.1–5
2Gleyber Torres singles on a line drive to right fielder Ezequiel Duran. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–5
2Kevin McGonigle singles on a ground ball to center fielder Evan Carter. Wenceel Pérez scores.0–4
1Dillon Dingler homers (6) on a fly ball to left field. Colt Keith scores. Riley Greene scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
