Red Sox at Tigers
Last play · Hao-Yu Lee flies out to right fielder Wilyer Abreu in foul territory.
Win probability
Tigers0%
BOS 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 0 – 0 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
8
opened 7 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jarren Duran homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Carlos Narváez scores. Andruw Monasterio scores. (inning 7) — -55% Red Sox
8Dillon Dingler doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Colt Keith scores. Matt Vierling scores.5–4
7Marcelo Mayer singles on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Wilyer Abreu scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 3rd.5–2
7Wilyer Abreu singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Masataka Yoshida scores.4–2
7Jarren Duran homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Carlos Narváez scores. Andruw Monasterio scores.3–2
6Matt Vierling reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Andruw Monasterio. Colt Keith scores. Jahmai Jones scores. Matt Vierling to 2nd. Throwing error by third baseman Andruw Monasterio.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
