Red Sox at Tigers
Last play · Spencer Torkelson flies out to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela.
Win probability
Tigers0%
BOS 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 4 – 0 DET
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 49.6% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-110 / -110
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Narváez reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Colt Keith. Masataka Yoshida scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Carlos Narváez to 2nd. (inning 4) — -17% Red Sox
4Carlos Narváez reaches on a fielding error by third baseman Colt Keith. Masataka Yoshida scores. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Carlos Narváez to 2nd.4–0
3Willson Contreras out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Matt Vierling. Carlos Narváez scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.2–0
3Caleb Durbin doubles (7) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Marcelo Mayer scores. Carlos Narváez to 3rd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
