Red Sox at Tigers
Last play · Hao-Yu Lee challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Hao-Yu Lee called out on strikes.
Win probability
Tigers0%
BOS 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 10 – 3 DET
Red Sox led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+133 / -161
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ceddanne Rafaela homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Wilyer Abreu scores. Trevor Story scores. (inning 1) — -28% Red Sox
5Dillon Dingler singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Kevin McGonigle scores. Kerry Carpenter to 2nd.10–3
4Wilyer Abreu homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.10–2
4Willson Contreras homers (8) on a fly ball to left center field.9–2
3Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounds into a force out, shortstop Kevin McGonigle to second baseman Hao-Yu Lee. Caleb Durbin scores. Connor Wong out at 2nd. Isiah Kiner-Falefa to 1st.8–2
3Tigers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Connor Wong singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Andruw Monasterio scores. Caleb Durbin to 3rd.7–2
3Caleb Durbin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Ceddanne Rafaela scores. Andruw Monasterio to 2nd.6–2
3Andruw Monasterio singles on a ground ball to center fielder Matt Vierling. Trevor Story scores. Ceddanne Rafaela to 2nd.5–2
3Ceddanne Rafaela singles on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Willson Contreras scores. Trevor Story to 2nd.4–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
