Blue Jays at Tigers
Last play · Spencer Torkelson challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Spencer Torkelson called out on strikes.
Win probability
Tigers0%
TOR 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTOR 4 – 0 DET
Blue Jays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-119 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Blue Jays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (3) on a line drive to left field. (inning 1) — -12% Blue Jays
8Jahmai Jones grounds into a force out, third baseman Ernie Clement to second baseman Davis Schneider. Wenceel Pérez scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Dillon Dingler out at 2nd. Jahmai Jones to 1st.4–1
3Jesús Sánchez out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Matt Vierling. Daulton Varsho scores.4–0
3Daulton Varsho triples (1) on a line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. scores.3–0
1Lenyn Sosa flies out to center fielder Matt Vierling. Jesús Sánchez to 3rd.2–0
1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. homers (3) on a line drive to left field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
