Guardians at Tigers
Last play · Colt Keith pops out to third baseman José Ramírez.
Win probability
Tigers0%
CLE 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 0 – 0 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7.5
fair over 47.9% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-115 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Patrick Bailey grounds out, second baseman Hao-Yu Lee to first baseman Colt Keith. Daniel Schneemann scores. Travis Bazzana to 3rd. (inning 9) — -38% Guardians
10Zach McKinstry singles on a ground ball to right fielder Angel Martínez. Wenceel Pérez scores.3–2
10José Ramírez doubles (11) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Matt Vierling. Angel Martínez scores.3–1
10Angel Martínez triples (1) on a sharp line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Brayan Rocchio scores.2–1
9Patrick Bailey grounds out, second baseman Hao-Yu Lee to first baseman Colt Keith. Daniel Schneemann scores. Travis Bazzana to 3rd.1–1
7Matt Vierling out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Steven Kwan. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
