Mariners at Tigers
SEA3–
DET7Last play · Dominic Canzone strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Tigers100%
SEA 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 3 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 50.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-120 / -101
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kerry Carpenter homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Dillon Dingler scores. (inning 3) — +23% Tigers
8Spencer Torkelson homers (9) on a fly ball to left field. Riley Greene scores.3–7
8Mitch Garver singles on a fly ball to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Josh Naylor scores.3–5
7Gleyber Torres doubles (4) on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles. Colt Keith scores. Zach McKinstry scores. Zack Short to 3rd.2–5
7Colt Emerson homers (4) on a fly ball to left field.2–3
3Kerry Carpenter homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Dillon Dingler scores.1–3
3Dillon Dingler flies into a force out, center fielder Julio Rodríguez to shortstop Colt Emerson. Gleyber Torres scores. Kevin McGonigle out at 2nd. Dillon Dingler to 1st.1–1
1Rob Refsnyder singles on a line drive to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. J.P. Crawford scores. Julio Rodríguez to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.