Mariners at Tigers
Last play · Riley Greene grounds into a double play, second baseman Cole Young to shortstop Colt Emerson to first baseman Josh Naylor. Jahmai Jones out at 2nd. Riley Greene out at 1st.
Win probability
Tigers0%
SEA 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 4 – 0 DET
Mariners led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-126 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tigers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Randy Arozarena doubles (18) on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor scores. (inning 3) — -21% Mariners
4Dominic Canzone homers (8) on a fly ball to center field.4–0
3Tigers challenged (tag play), call on the field was upheld: Randy Arozarena doubles (18) on a line drive to right fielder Wenceel Pérez. Julio Rodríguez scores. Josh Naylor scores.3–0
2Dominic Canzone doubles (11) on a fly ball to center fielder Matt Vierling. Randy Arozarena scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
