Mariners at Tigers
Last play · Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles, deflected by second baseman Cole Young. Zach McKinstry scores. Wenceel Pérez scores.
Win probability
Tigers100%
SEA 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalSEA 1 – 1 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+102 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Mariners favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles, deflected by second baseman Cole Young. Zach McKinstry scores. Wenceel Pérez scores. (inning 9) — +55% Tigers
9Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to right fielder Victor Robles, deflected by second baseman Cole Young. Zach McKinstry scores. Wenceel Pérez scores.4–5
7Wenceel Pérez triples (1) on a line drive to right fielder Luke Raley. Spencer Torkelson scores. Zach McKinstry scores.4–3
7Randy Arozarena singles on a line drive to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Julio Rodríguez scores.4–1
6Colt Emerson hit by pitch. Josh Naylor scores. Randy Arozarena to 3rd. Patrick Wisdom to 2nd.3–1
6Josh Naylor doubles (7) on a ground ball to right fielder Kerry Carpenter, deflected by first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Julio Rodríguez scores.2–1
4Kevin McGonigle homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.1–1
3Cole Young singles on a sharp ground ball to right fielder Kerry Carpenter. Colt Emerson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
