Twins at Tigers
Last play · Victor Caratini flies out to right fielder Wenceel Pérez.
Win probability
Tigers100%
MIN 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 52.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+116 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kerry Carpenter homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Dillon Dingler scores. (inning 5) — +30% Tigers
7Gleyber Torres singles on a ground ball to left fielder Kody Clemens, deflected by shortstop Tristan Gray. Riley Greene scores. Spencer Torkelson scores. Zach McKinstry to 3rd.4–10
6Dillon Dingler homers (16) on a fly ball to left field. Zach McKinstry scores. Gleyber Torres scores.4–8
5Kerry Carpenter homers (9) on a fly ball to right field. Dillon Dingler scores.4–5
5Kody Clemens homers (9) on a fly ball to right field.4–3
5Brooks Lee homers (10) on a line drive to right field.3–3
3Riley Greene out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Trevor Larnach. Kevin McGonigle scores.2–3
3Josh Bell homers (7) on a line drive to left center field.2–2
2Riley Greene homers (7) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
