Twins at Tigers
Last play · Riley Greene strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Tigers0%
MIN 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 4 – 3 DET
Twins led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 49.9% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Byron Buxton homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Alex Jackson scores. Austin Martin scores. (inning 5) — -36% Twins
9Dillon Dingler singles on a ground ball to left fielder Kody Clemens. Wenceel Pérez scores. Gleyber Torres to 2nd.6–4
7Luke Keaschall lines out to right fielder Kerry Carpenter.6–3
7Josh Bell singles on a line drive to center fielder Zach McKinstry. Austin Martin scores. Brooks Lee to 2nd.5–3
5Kerry Carpenter singles on a ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin, deflected by second baseman Luke Keaschall. Zach McKinstry scores. Kevin McGonigle scores. Gleyber Torres to 3rd.4–3
5Byron Buxton homers (20) on a fly ball to left center field. Alex Jackson scores. Austin Martin scores.4–1
3Gleyber Torres doubles (5) on a line drive to right fielder Austin Martin, deflected by center fielder Byron Buxton. Kevin McGonigle scores.1–1
2Royce Lewis homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
