Twins at Tigers
Last play · Jake Rogers challenged (pitch result), call on the field was overturned: Royce Lewis called out on strikes.
Win probability
Tigers100%
MIN 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalMIN 0 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 9 ↑
fair over 51% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Twins favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Torkelson homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Colt Keith scores. (inning 4) — +13% Tigers
8Wenceel Pérez homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. Jake Rogers scores.0–11
8Zach McKinstry homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.0–9
7Riley Greene homers (8) on a fly ball to left field.0–8
6Colt Keith homers (1) on a fly ball to right center field. Kerry Carpenter scores.0–7
5Gleyber Torres homers (4) on a fly ball to right field.0–5
4Spencer Torkelson homers (10) on a fly ball to left field. Colt Keith scores.0–4
4Colt Keith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Austin Martin. Dillon Dingler scores.0–2
1Riley Greene out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Byron Buxton. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
