Yankees at Tigers
Last play · Zach McKinstry flies out to left fielder Cody Bellinger.
Win probability
Tigers0%
NYY 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 2 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 49.4% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-118 / -102
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Paul Goldschmidt scores. (inning 6) — -31% Yankees
6Matt Vierling doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Dillon Dingler scores.4–3
6Austin Wells doubles (2) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. José Caballero scores.4–2
6Jazz Chisholm Jr. homers (12) on a fly ball to right center field. Paul Goldschmidt scores.3–2
4José Caballero grounds out, third baseman Kevin McGonigle to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Jazz Chisholm Jr. scores. Spencer Jones to 2nd.1–2
3Dillon Dingler singles on a line drive to left fielder Cody Bellinger. Ben Malgeri scores.0–2
3Kevin McGonigle pops out to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
