Yankees at Tigers
Last play · Amed Rosario called out on strikes.
Win probability
Tigers100%
NYY 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalNYY 1 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-125 / +104
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Yankees favored ↓
Biggest swing · Ali Sánchez doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. José Caballero scores. (inning 2) — -15% Yankees
7Amed Rosario homers (7) on a fly ball to right center field. Austin Wells scores.3–5
5Riley Greene homers (9) on a fly ball to right center field.1–5
4Kevin McGonigle doubles (17) on a line drive to left fielder José Caballero. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Kevin McGonigle advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by left fielder José Caballero.1–4
3Colt Keith singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Cody Bellinger. Riley Greene scores. Spencer Torkelson to 2nd.1–3
3Spencer Torkelson singles on a line drive to center fielder Cody Bellinger. Kerry Carpenter scores. Riley Greene to 3rd.1–2
3Kevin McGonigle grounds out, second baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. to first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Zach McKinstry scores.1–1
2Ali Sánchez doubles (2) on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. José Caballero scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
