Astros at Tigers
Last play · Colt Keith grounds into a double play, first baseman Christian Walker to shortstop Jeremy Peña. Riley Greene out at 2nd. Colt Keith out at 1st.
Win probability
Tigers0%
HOU 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 0 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 50.6% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference+100 / -121
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Taylor Trammell homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. (inning 6) — -14% Astros
9Dillon Dingler homers (19) on a fly ball to center field.2–1
9Isaac Paredes out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder James Outman. Jeremy Peña scores.2–0
6Taylor Trammell homers (2) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
