Astros at Tigers
Last play · Jahmai Jones challenged (pitch result), call on the field was confirmed: Jahmai Jones called out on strikes.
Win probability
Tigers0%
HOU 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 4 – 6 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 50.2% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+117 / -141
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kerry Carpenter hits a grand slam (12) to right center field. Kevin McGonigle scores. Colt Keith scores. Spencer Torkelson scores. (inning 3) — +48% Tigers
8Isaac Paredes doubles (16) on a line drive to right fielder Matt Vierling. Christian Vázquez scores. Jeremy Peña scores.8–6
8Jeremy Peña singles on a line drive to center fielder James Outman. Yainer Diaz scores. Christian Vázquez to 3rd. Jeremy Peña to 2nd. Fielding error by center fielder James Outman.6–6
7Christian Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Isaac Paredes scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.5–6
5Hao-Yu Lee homers (3) on a fly ball to left center field.4–6
4Spencer Torkelson doubles (18) on a line drive to left fielder Brice Matthews. Jake Rogers scores. Riley Greene to 3rd.4–5
4Jeremy Peña singles on a ground ball to center fielder James Outman. Yainer Diaz scores. Christian Vázquez to 2nd.4–4
3Kerry Carpenter hits a grand slam (12) to right center field. Kevin McGonigle scores. Colt Keith scores. Spencer Torkelson scores.3–4
3Jose Altuve grounds into a double play, shortstop Zach McKinstry to second baseman Hao-Yu Lee to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Jeremy Peña scores. Isaac Paredes out at 2nd. Jose Altuve out at 1st.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
