Astros at Tigers
Last play · Matt Vierling lines out sharply to right fielder Cam Smith.
Win probability
Tigers0%
HOU 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 3 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 51.1% · hold 4.7%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-114 / -105
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Isaac Paredes homers (11) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 8) — -28% Astros
10Spencer Torkelson homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field. Riley Greene scores.7–5
10Christian Walker homers (19) on a fly ball to left field. Yordan Alvarez scores. Isaac Paredes scores.7–3
10Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to right fielder Ben Malgeri. Jeremy Peña scores. Yordan Alvarez to 2nd.4–3
8Isaac Paredes homers (11) on a fly ball to left field.3–3
7Raynel Delgado homers (1) on a fly ball to right field. Jake Meyers scores.2–3
5Riley Greene reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Raynel Delgado. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–3
2Zach McKinstry homers (3) on a fly ball to right center field. Kerry Carpenter scores.0–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
