Astros at Tigers
Last play · Joey Loperfido strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Tigers100%
HOU 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalHOU 0 – 8 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8 ↑
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-108 / -112
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Astros favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kerry Carpenter homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Kevin McGonigle scores. (inning 3) — +17% Tigers
4Dillon Dingler singles on a fly ball to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–8
4James Outman homers (2) on a fly ball to right field. Zach McKinstry scores. Matt Vierling scores.0–7
4Colt Keith homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.0–4
3Kerry Carpenter homers (11) on a fly ball to right field. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–3
3Dillon Dingler strikes out swinging. James Outman scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Kevin McGonigle steals (10) 2nd base. James Outman scores. Throwing error by catcher Yainer Diaz.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
