Athletics at Tigers
Last play · Zack Gelof pops out to catcher Jake Rogers.
Win probability
Tigers100%
ATH 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 6 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9.5
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+118 / -142
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jake Rogers homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Zach McKinstry scores. (inning 2) — +16% Tigers
5Spencer Torkelson homers (15) on a fly ball to left field. Jake Rogers scores. Kevin McGonigle scores.1–6
4Jacob Wilson reaches on a throwing error by shortstop Zach McKinstry. Tyler Soderstrom scores. Jacob Wilson to 2nd.1–3
2Jake Rogers homers (2) on a fly ball to left center field. Zach McKinstry scores.0–3
1Riley Greene singles on a line drive to right fielder Lawrence Butler. Dillon Dingler scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Spencer Torkelson to 2nd.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
