Phillies at Tigers
Last play · Rafael Marchán pops out softly to pitcher Beau Brieske.
Win probability
Tigers100%
PHI 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 2 – 2 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 49.7% · hold 4.5%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-101 / -120
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Rogers scores. (inning 3) — +25% Tigers
7Spencer Torkelson homers (16) on a line drive to left center field. Riley Greene scores.2–10
7Colt Keith homers (8) on a fly ball to right center field.2–8
6Jake Rogers flies out to center fielder Derek Hill.2–7
6James Outman triples (2) on a sharp line drive to center fielder Derek Hill. Eduardo Valencia scores. Zach McKinstry scores.2–6
6Zach McKinstry hits a sacrifice bunt. Throwing error by pitcher Tim Mayza. Matt Vierling scores. Eduardo Valencia to 3rd. Zach McKinstry to 1st.2–4
6Eduardo Valencia singles on a line drive to left fielder Brandon Marsh. Riley Greene scores. Matt Vierling to 3rd.2–3
4Derek Hill singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm to 3rd. Bryson Stott to 2nd.2–2
3Kevin McGonigle homers (8) on a fly ball to center field. Jake Rogers scores.1–2
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
