Athletics at Tigers
Last play · Tyler Soderstrom lines out to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Tigers100%
ATH 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalATH 1 – 3 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.1% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+109 / -131
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Athletics favored ↓
Biggest swing · Zach McKinstry homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Kerry Carpenter scores. (inning 5) — +25% Tigers
7Eduardo Valencia homers (1) on a fly ball to center field.1–4
5Zach McKinstry homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Kerry Carpenter scores.1–3
5Henry Bolte grounds into a force out, first baseman Spencer Torkelson to shortstop Zach McKinstry. Jacob Wilson scores. Lawrence Butler out at 2nd. Henry Bolte to 1st.1–1
3Jake Rogers homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
