Phillies at Tigers
Last play · Riley Greene grounds out softly, pitcher Jonathan Bowlan to first baseman Bryce Harper.
Win probability
Tigers0%
PHI 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 1 – 0 DET
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 51.5% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+113 / -136
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Kevin McGonigle. (inning 6) — -28% Phillies
6Phillies challenged (play at 1st), call on the field was overturned: Bryson Stott singles on a ground ball to shortstop Kevin McGonigle. J.T. Realmuto scores.5–0
6J.T. Realmuto doubles (11) on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Bryce Harper scores. Alec Bohm scores. Brandon Marsh scores. J.T. Realmuto to 3rd. J.T. Realmuto advances to 3rd, on a throwing error by shortstop Kevin McGonigle.4–0
3Kyle Schwarber singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. J.T. Realmuto scores. Kyle Schwarber to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
