Phillies at Tigers
Last play · Zach McKinstry pops out to shortstop Trea Turner.
Win probability
Tigers0%
PHI 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalPHI 4 – 1 DET
Phillies led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 7 ↑
fair over 51.7% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-148 / +123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Phillies favored ↓
Biggest swing · J.T. Realmuto doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryson Stott scores. (inning 4) — -21% Phillies
8Spencer Torkelson grounds into a double play, shortstop Trea Turner to second baseman Bryson Stott to first baseman Bryce Harper. Matt Vierling scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd. Dillon Dingler out at 2nd. Spencer Torkelson out at 1st.4–2
5Eduardo Valencia homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field.4–1
4Derek Hill singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. J.T. Realmuto scores.4–0
4J.T. Realmuto doubles (10) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Brandon Marsh scores. Bryson Stott scores.3–0
3Trea Turner out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Matt Vierling. Derek Hill scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
