Royals at Tigers
Last play · Nick Loftin pops out to second baseman Hao-Yu Lee.
Win probability
Tigers100%
KC 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 2 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 48.8% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+218 / -272
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Loftin doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Salvador Perez scores. (inning 4) — -12% Royals
4Nick Loftin doubles (16) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Salvador Perez scores.1–2
1Hao-Yu Lee singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Lane Thomas. Gleyber Torres scores. Dillon Dingler to 2nd.0–2
1Riley Greene out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Isaac Collins. Colt Keith scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
