Royals at Tigers
Last play · Salvador Perez grounds into a double play, first baseman Spencer Torkelson to shortstop Kevin McGonigle to pitcher Kyle Finnegan. Vinnie Pasquantino out at 2nd. Salvador Perez out at 1st.
Win probability
Tigers100%
KC 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 0 – 0 DET
Tied through 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+188 / -232
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · James Outman homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Dillon Dingler scores. Kerry Carpenter scores. (inning 7) — +60% Tigers
8Dillon Dingler doubles (22) on a sharp ground ball to left fielder Isaac Collins. Hao-Yu Lee scores.3–4
8Josh Rojas singles on a line drive to center fielder James Outman. Tyler Tolbert scores.3–3
7James Outman homers (4) on a fly ball to right center field. Dillon Dingler scores. Kerry Carpenter scores.2–3
6Isaac Collins homers (6) on a fly ball to right field. Michael Massey scores.2–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
