Royals at Tigers
Last play · Riley Greene strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Tigers0%
KC 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 3 – 4 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 49.8% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+157 / -192
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Michael Massey homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Isaac Collins scores. (inning 8) — -52% Royals
8Michael Massey homers (8) on a fly ball to right field. Isaac Collins scores.5–4
5Dillon Dingler singles on a ground ball to center fielder Lane Thomas. Kevin McGonigle scores. Riley Greene scores.3–4
5Riley Greene doubles (23) on a ground ball to center fielder Lane Thomas. Hao-Yu Lee scores. Colt Keith scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd.3–2
4Luke Maile doubles (1) on a ground ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Tyler Tolbert scores.3–0
1Tyler Tolbert reaches on a fielding error by second baseman Hao-Yu Lee. Nick Loftin scores. Jac Caglianone to 3rd. Isaac Collins to 2nd.2–0
1Lane Thomas homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
