Orioles at Tigers
BAL8–
DET5Last play · Dillon Dingler pops out to first baseman Pete Alonso in foul territory.
Win probability
Tigers0%
BAL 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 7 – 5 DET
Orioles led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+108 / -130
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Tyler O'Neill homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field. (inning 6) — -17% Orioles
6Tyler O'Neill homers (7) on a fly ball to left center field.8–5
5Zach McKinstry singles on a line drive to right fielder Dylan Beavers. Colt Keith scores.7–5
5Spencer Torkelson out on a sacrifice fly to left fielder Taylor Ward. Dillon Dingler scores. Colt Keith to 3rd.7–4
5Coby Mayo homers (14) on a fly ball to left center field. Jackson Holliday scores.7–3
5Leody Taveras homers (5) on a fly ball to right field.5–3
4Matt Vierling out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Leody Taveras. Spencer Torkelson scores. Zach McKinstry to 3rd.4–3
4Hao-Yu Lee singles on a ground ball to shortstop Jackson Holliday. Riley Greene scores. Spencer Torkelson to 3rd. Zach McKinstry to 2nd.4–2
3Coby Mayo singles on a line drive to left fielder Matt Vierling. Leody Taveras scores. Jackson Holliday to 3rd.4–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.