Royals at Tigers
Last play · Spencer Torkelson pops out to catcher Carter Jensen.
Win probability
Tigers0%
KC 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalKC 1 – 2 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 8
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+141 / -171
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Royals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nick Loftin homers (5) on a fly ball to left field. (inning 9) — -34% Royals
9Nick Loftin homers (5) on a fly ball to left field.3–2
7Salvador Perez homers (15) on a fly ball to left field.2–2
4Hao-Yu Lee homers (6) on a fly ball to left field.1–2
2Hao-Yu Lee doubles (9) on a line drive to right fielder Jac Caglianone. Riley Greene scores.1–1
2Michael Massey out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Vinnie Pasquantino scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
