Orioles at Tigers
Last play · Gunnar Henderson pops out to third baseman Colt Keith.
Win probability
Tigers100%
BAL 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 9 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 9
fair over 50.5% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+123 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Colt Keith triples (3) on a fly ball to right fielder Leody Taveras. Kevin McGonigle scores. Riley Greene scores. (inning 1) — +17% Tigers
8Eduardo Valencia homers (4) on a fly ball to left field. Zach McKinstry scores.0–14
7Ben Malgeri singles on a fly ball to left fielder Jeremiah Jackson. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–12
7Gleyber Torres grounds out, third baseman Coby Mayo to first baseman Pete Alonso. James Outman scores. Kevin McGonigle to 3rd.0–11
6Spencer Torkelson out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Leody Taveras. Ben Malgeri scores.0–10
5Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to center fielder Colton Cowser. Eduardo Valencia scores. Javier Báez to 3rd.0–9
4Gleyber Torres homers (5) on a fly ball to left center field. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–8
3Eduardo Valencia singles on a ground ball to center fielder Colton Cowser. Colt Keith scores.0–6
2Gleyber Torres doubles (7) on a line drive to right fielder Leody Taveras. Javier Báez scores. Kevin McGonigle scores.0–5
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
