Orioles at Tigers
BAL10–
DET9Last play · Eduardo Valencia grounds out, shortstop Gunnar Henderson to first baseman Pete Alonso.
Win probability
Tigers0%
BAL 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalBAL 0 – 5 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+161 / -197
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Orioles favored ↓
Biggest swing · Spencer Torkelson homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Eduardo Valencia scores. (inning 11) — +61% Tigers
12Colton Cowser singles on a line drive to center fielder James Outman. Taylor Ward scores.10–9
11Spencer Torkelson homers (20) on a fly ball to left field. Eduardo Valencia scores.9–9
11Jackson Holliday singles on a line drive to left fielder Riley Greene. Coby Mayo scores.9–7
11Yohel Pozo out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Christian Encarnacion-Strand scores. Coby Mayo to 3rd.8–7
8Coby Mayo triples (1) on a sharp fly ball to left fielder Riley Greene. Gunnar Henderson scores. Dylan Beavers scores.7–7
7Taylor Ward singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Jeremiah Jackson scores. Jackson Holliday scores.5–7
7Jackson Holliday singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Coby Mayo scores. Leody Taveras scores. Jeremiah Jackson to 3rd.3–7
7Leody Taveras singles on a line drive to center fielder Javier Báez. Gunnar Henderson scores. Coby Mayo to 2nd.1–7
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.