Guardians at Tigers
Last play · Travis Bazzana grounds out, second baseman Zach McKinstry to first baseman Spencer Torkelson.
Win probability
Tigers100%
CLE 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCLE 1 – 4 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+131 / -140
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Guardians favored ↓
Biggest swing · Kevin McGonigle doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Max Clark scores. Javier Báez scores. (inning 5) — +25% Tigers
9Jo Adell out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder James Outman. Steven Kwan scores. José Ramírez to 3rd.4–6
8Jo Adell homers (17) on a fly ball to center field.3–6
7Kevin McGonigle singles on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Zach McKinstry scores.2–6
7José Ramírez grounds out, shortstop Javier Báez to first baseman Spencer Torkelson. Steven Kwan scores.2–4
5Gleyber Torres singles on a ground ball to center fielder Steven Kwan. Kevin McGonigle scores.1–4
5Kevin McGonigle doubles (21) on a line drive to right fielder Chase DeLauter. Max Clark scores. Javier Báez scores.1–3
3Chase DeLauter homers (13) on a fly ball to right center field.1–1
2Spencer Torkelson doubles (20) on a line drive to center fielder Steven Kwan. Riley Greene scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
