Rays at Tigers
Last play · Kevin McGonigle lines out to second baseman Richie Palacios.
Win probability
Tigers0%
TB 100%DET 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 2 – 0 DET
Rays led after 5
Total runs
7.5
opened 8 ↓
fair over 49.2% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+114 / -123
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Jonny DeLuca doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Chandler Simpson scores. (inning 2) — -15% Rays
6Liam Hicks out on a sacrifice fly to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Jonathan Aranda scores.3–0
2Cedric Mullins singles on a ground ball to right fielder Zach McKinstry. Jonny DeLuca scores. Cedric Mullins out at 2nd on the throw, right fielder Zach McKinstry to shortstop Kevin McGonigle.2–0
2Jonny DeLuca doubles (20) on a sharp line drive to left fielder Brett Callahan. Chandler Simpson scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
