Rays at Tigers
Last play · Richie Palacios pops out to third baseman Kevin McGonigle in foul territory.
Win probability
Tigers100%
TB 0%DET 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalTB 1 – 3 DET
Tigers led after 5
Total runs
8
opened 7.5 ↑
fair over 48.3% · hold 4.6%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-128 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Tigers favored ↑50%Rays favored ↓
Biggest swing · Max Clark homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Javier Báez scores. (inning 5) — +30% Tigers
7Hao-Yu Lee singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Chandler Simpson. Javier Báez scores.1–4
5Kevin McGonigle reaches on a fielding error by first baseman Jonathan Aranda. Gleyber Torres scores.1–3
5Max Clark homers (2) on a fly ball to right center field. Javier Báez scores.1–2
4Jonny DeLuca singles on a ground ball to third baseman Hao-Yu Lee. Junior Caminero scores.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
