Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Marcelo Mayer grounds out, third baseman Nick Allen to first baseman Christian Walker.
Win probability
Astros100%
BOS 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 1 – 6 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Christian Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Jose Altuve scores. Carlos Correa scores. (inning 3) — +17% Astros
8Ceddanne Rafaela homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.2–9
7Cam Smith homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.1–9
6Carlos Correa singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Jake Meyers scores. Yordan Alvarez scores. Jose Altuve to 2nd.1–8
5Cam Smith walks.1–6
5Joey Loperfido singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Carlos Correa scores. Christian Walker to 3rd.1–5
5Yordan Alvarez homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.1–4
5Connor Wong doubles (2) on a line drive to center fielder Jake Meyers. Marcelo Mayer scores.1–3
3Christian Walker singles on a line drive to left fielder Roman Anthony. Jose Altuve scores. Carlos Correa scores.0–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
