Red Sox at Astros
Last play · Trevor Story strikes out swinging.
Win probability
Astros100%
BOS 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalBOS 2 – 5 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
7
opened 7.5 ↓
fair over 50.4% · hold 4.8%
Run line
+1.5
Moneyline
reference-143 / +119
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Astros favored ↑50%Red Sox favored ↓
Biggest swing · Carlos Correa homers (1) on a line drive to left field. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez scores. (inning 5) — +33% Astros
9Roman Anthony homers (1) on a line drive to left center field.4–6
8Wilyer Abreu homers (3) on a fly ball to right field.3–6
7Christian Vázquez homers (1) on a fly ball to left center field.2–6
5Carlos Correa homers (1) on a line drive to left field. Jose Altuve scores. Yordan Alvarez scores.2–5
2Jarren Duran grounds out, shortstop Carlos Correa to first baseman Christian Walker. Isiah Kiner-Falefa scores. Connor Wong to 3rd.2–2
1Christian Walker singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Jarren Duran. Isaac Paredes scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd.1–2
1Isaac Paredes doubles (4) on a line drive to center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela. Yordan Alvarez scores.1–1
1Willson Contreras singles on a ground ball to center fielder Jake Meyers. Jarren Duran scores. Masataka Yoshida to 2nd.1–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
