Rockies at Astros
COL6–
HOU7Last play · Jordan Beck called out on strikes.
Win probability
Astros100%
COL 0%HOU 100%
First 5 (F5)
finalCOL 5 – 7 HOU
Astros led after 5
Total runs
8.5
opened 8.5
fair over 52.3% · hold 4.8%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+161 / -196
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Rockies favored ↓
Biggest swing · Yordan Alvarez doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Beck. Christian Vázquez scores. Jose Altuve scores. (inning 3) — +25% Astros
8Troy Johnston singles on a line drive to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Ezequiel Tovar scores. Edouard Julien to 2nd.6–7
5Hunter Goodman homers (4) on a fly ball to left center field.5–7
4Jordan Beck homers (1) on a fly ball to right field.4–7
3Christian Vázquez singles on a ground ball to left fielder Jake McCarthy, deflected by shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Cam Smith scores. Joey Loperfido to 2nd.3–7
3Joey Loperfido singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Beck, deflected by second baseman Willi Castro. Christian Walker scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.3–6
3Cam Smith singles on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Beck. Carlos Correa scores. Christian Walker to 2nd.3–5
3Christian Walker reaches on a fielder's choice, fielded by third baseman Kyle Karros. Yordan Alvarez scores. Carlos Correa to 2nd.3–4
3Yordan Alvarez doubles (5) on a ground ball to right fielder Jordan Beck. Christian Vázquez scores. Jose Altuve scores.3–3
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.