Cardinals at Astros
STL9–
HOU4Last play · Carlos Correa flies out to right fielder Jordan Walker.
Win probability
Astros0%
STL 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 3 HOU
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 48.9% · hold 4.7%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+124 / -149
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Nolan Gorman homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker scores. (inning 7) — -26% Cardinals
8Taylor Trammell singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Carlos Correa scores. Cam Smith to 3rd.9–4
8Iván Herrera homers (2) on a fly ball to left field. JJ Wetherholt scores.9–3
7Nolan Gorman homers (3) on a fly ball to right field. Alec Burleson scores. Jordan Walker scores.7–3
5Jose Altuve homers (3) on a fly ball to left field.4–3
4Iván Herrera singles on a sharp line drive to center fielder Taylor Trammell. Pedro Pagés scores.4–2
3Yordan Alvarez homers (8) on a fly ball to right field.3–2
3Christian Vázquez homers (2) on a fly ball to left field.3–1
3Masyn Winn singles on a ground ball to left fielder Joey Loperfido. JJ Wetherholt scores. Iván Herrera scores. Alec Burleson to 3rd.3–0
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.