Cardinals at Astros
Last play · Christian Walker grounds into a force out, third baseman Ramón Urías to second baseman JJ Wetherholt. Jose Altuve out at 2nd.
Win probability
Astros0%
STL 100%HOU 0%
First 5 (F5)
finalSTL 4 – 1 HOU
Cardinals led after 5
Total runs
9
opened 8.5 ↑
fair over 47.6% · hold 4.5%
Run line
-1.5
Moneyline
reference+128 / -154
We show no side edge — our game model measures at the coin flip.
Not priced · Total Stolen Bases, Stolen Bases Milestones, First Home Run Hitter, First Team to Score — these outcomes aren't in our simulator's event model, so we don't have a number for them.
Astros favored ↑50%Cardinals favored ↓
Biggest swing · Masyn Winn doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Dustin Harris. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores. Ramón Urías scores. (inning 10) — -55% Cardinals
10Jose Altuve singles on a ground ball to shortstop Masyn Winn. Taylor Trammell scores. Carlos Correa to 3rd.7–5
10Masyn Winn doubles (4) on a ground ball to left fielder Dustin Harris. Iván Herrera scores. Jordan Walker scores. Ramón Urías scores.7–4
8Isaac Paredes singles on a line drive to right fielder Jordan Walker. Jose Altuve scores. Christian Walker scores.4–4
8Yordan Alvarez homers (10) on a fly ball to right field.4–2
5Iván Herrera singles on a sharp line drive to left fielder Shay Whitcomb. Victor Scott II scores. JJ Wetherholt to 2nd.4–1
5JJ Wetherholt singles on a line drive to right fielder Cam Smith. Nathan Church scores. Pedro Pagés scores. Victor Scott II to 3rd.3–1
5Victor Scott II walks. Masyn Winn scores. Nathan Church to 3rd. Pedro Pagés to 2nd.1–1
3Carlos Correa out on a sacrifice fly to center fielder Victor Scott II. Taylor Trammell scores.0–1
Velocity & spin from the MLB Stats API live feed. The fatigue read compares each pitcher's live fastball velocity to their fresh baseline and our fatigue-curve model (−0.61 mph / 100 pitches). Win probability is from our own base-out/inning/score table built on 2024–25 games.
